0%
BlockBase
Hoạt động
Bài đăng được ghim
BlockBase @BlockBase
Macro Insights – February 2024: The bull run season has started
👉Investors are currently exhibiting their most optimistic sentiment in over two years, buoyed by an improved macroeconomic outlook and a diminished perception of risk (concerns of recession and growth scare may have been overstated).
👉Allocations by investors to US stocks have reached their highest point since November 2021, while allocations to tech stocks have peaked since August 2021. This shift comes as investors progressively move away from cash positions.
👉The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite have just recorded their best February performances since 2015, concluding the month at all-time highs. This achievement is supported by several outstanding earnings reports from major tech companies and a more optimistic outlook for the US economy.
👉The top 10% of stocks in the US currently reflect ~75% of the entire market. Bank of America expects leadership to broaden as the gap between earnings growth of the Magnificent 7 and the rest of the S&P 500 begins to narrow.
👉If the US avoids recession, the stock market is expected to outperform the bond market, and any market dips are unlikely to be deep with a massive amount of cash ($6 trillion in money markets) sitting on the sidelines, waiting.
👉Retail traders re-entered the crypto markets in February, driven by the anticipation of three major crypto catalysts in the upcoming months: the Bitcoin Halving event, the next major upgrade of the Ethereum network, and the potential approval of Spot Ethereum ETFs by the SEC in May. At this point, the first two catalysts are largely factored into prices.
👉Bitcoin has surpassed traditional assets such as stocks and gold this year, bolstered by significant inflows into global bitcoin exchange-traded products and additional acquisitions by MicroStrategy. Notably, Ethereum, which surged 47% during the month, benefited from the upcoming Dencun upgrade and the prospects for regulatory approval of an ETH ETF in May.
👉Gold ETFs have seen net outflows since the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs. Over the long term, increased inflows into bitcoin ETFs could pose a threat to gold’s status as a primary store of value.
Investors have invested more than $7.4 billion into nine ETFs that commenced trading last month. The fixed supply, robust demand, and an impending reduction in Bitcoin’s supply growth (the halving event) are expected to lead to rapidly increasing price levels in the medium and long term.
👉Ethereum still has significant room for growth this year, and even a 10-15% downturn would be insignificant compared to the potential upside of 50% or more (well risk-reward ratio).
👉The current uncertainty lies with the Federal Reserve. If the Fed decides to pause interest rate hikes in March, then the bulls might attempt to push the market up once again. However, the possibility that the Fed delays interest rate cuts beyond investor expectations, leading to a financial market adjustment, cannot be ruled out.
✍️ Learn more: https://insights.blockbase.co/macro-insights-february-2024/
👉Investors are currently exhibiting their most optimistic sentiment in over two years, buoyed by an improved macroeconomic outlook and a diminished perception of risk (concerns of recession and growth scare may have been overstated).
👉Allocations by investors to US stocks have reached their highest point since November 2021, while allocations to tech stocks have peaked since August 2021. This shift comes as investors progressively move away from cash positions.
👉The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite have just recorded their best February performances since 2015, concluding the month at all-time highs. This achievement is supported by several outstanding earnings reports from major tech companies and a more optimistic outlook for the US economy.
👉The top 10% of stocks in the US currently reflect ~75% of the entire market. Bank of America expects leadership to broaden as the gap between earnings growth of the Magnificent 7 and the rest of the S&P 500 begins to narrow.
👉If the US avoids recession, the stock market is expected to outperform the bond market, and any market dips are unlikely to be deep with a massive amount of cash ($6 trillion in money markets) sitting on the sidelines, waiting.
👉Retail traders re-entered the crypto markets in February, driven by the anticipation of three major crypto catalysts in the upcoming months: the Bitcoin Halving event, the next major upgrade of the Ethereum network, and the potential approval of Spot Ethereum ETFs by the SEC in May. At this point, the first two catalysts are largely factored into prices.
👉Bitcoin has surpassed traditional assets such as stocks and gold this year, bolstered by significant inflows into global bitcoin exchange-traded products and additional acquisitions by MicroStrategy. Notably, Ethereum, which surged 47% during the month, benefited from the upcoming Dencun upgrade and the prospects for regulatory approval of an ETH ETF in May.
👉Gold ETFs have seen net outflows since the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs. Over the long term, increased inflows into bitcoin ETFs could pose a threat to gold’s status as a primary store of value.
Investors have invested more than $7.4 billion into nine ETFs that commenced trading last month. The fixed supply, robust demand, and an impending reduction in Bitcoin’s supply growth (the halving event) are expected to lead to rapidly increasing price levels in the medium and long term.
👉Ethereum still has significant room for growth this year, and even a 10-15% downturn would be insignificant compared to the potential upside of 50% or more (well risk-reward ratio).
👉The current uncertainty lies with the Federal Reserve. If the Fed decides to pause interest rate hikes in March, then the bulls might attempt to push the market up once again. However, the possibility that the Fed delays interest rate cuts beyond investor expectations, leading to a financial market adjustment, cannot be ruled out.
✍️ Learn more: https://insights.blockbase.co/macro-insights-february-2024/
